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1st Mock of 2009

JGleas

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Hey everybody,
My name is Josh Gleason and I've been working as a Draft Analyst on a few different sites since 2005. I'm very good frieds with one of your fellow members so I figured I'd come on and share some of my information with you guys. Enjoy!

1. Detroit Lions-QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia*
-Schwartz had a good point, they need to replace Bobby Layne. Whether it's Kitna or Culpepper, Stafford will have a chance to sit and learn and develop into a Franchise QB.

2. St. Louis Rams-CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
-Good amount of options here. Rams stay safe, get a guy who can help out big time. He can blitz off the corner in Spags defense, or lock up man-to-man when Spags sends the house. Could look at OT here but this is an ideal situation.

3. Kansas City Chiefs-OLB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
-Defense needs help. Derrick Johnson is a very lonely man in that front 7. Curry is a very good all-around Backer who can make an instant impact. Could look at DE, but Curry is hard to pass up.

4. Seattle Seahawks-OT Michael Oher, (Ole) Mississippi
-Ruskell, the Seahawks GM, likes to stick in the trenches and on defense, and likes to draft good athletes in the trenches. Oher may need some work, but has a lot of potential and sitting behind Walter Jones would be an ideal situation. They can draft a QB in the next few rounds and groom them, and same goes for Wide Receiver.

5. Cleveland Browns-DE/OLB Everette Brown, Florida State*
-Wimbley has busted and they lack an explosive edge rusher in their 3-4 defense. Whether it's Orakpo or Brown, this position is a much need.

6. Cincinnati Bengals-OT/OG Andre Smith, Alabama*
-Bengals have the need, Andre Smith has off-field concerns (talking to agents and his weight), and is a boom-or-bust prospect but could fill one of a few needs on the Bengals Offensive Line. Sounds like a classic Cincy pick.

7. Oakland Raiders-DE Brian Orakpo, Texas
-Orakpo is a physical freak that Al Davis will love. It'll be between him and Vontae I believe, despite most thinking they want to give JaMarcus help. It's probably needed, but I've heard and read lately they are rather pleased with the current receiving corps and think a good Camp battle between Kwame Harris and Mario Henderson will give them a suitable Starting LT. I don't agree on either, but that's what I hear. Burgess is leaving, and they need an edge rusher.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars-OT Eugene Monroe, Virginia
-Khalif Barnes has been a bust, that Offensive Line has been hampered and because of that, Garrard has been beaten up. The Jags have a solid stable of Receivers and a good defense, so I think they grab Monroe and don't think twice about this potential Franchise LT.

9. Green Bay Packers-OT Jason Smith, Baylor
-They need to keep helping Rodgers, and what better way then giving him a future blindside protector? Smith is an ideal fit for the Packers ZBS offense and will benefit from sitting a year behind Chad Clifton.

10. San Francisco 49ers-WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech**
-Mike Singletary has said he wants to win and wants people that can win. I think Crabtree's desire and work ethic is pretty evident. Maybe the reason behind the lack of success at QB for the 49ers the past few years is the lack of a true #1 WR? Just a theory, but I believe a very legit one and I find if very find for the 49ers to pass on Crabtree with Brown and Orakpo off the board.

11. Buffalo Bills-DE/OLB Aaron Maybin, Penn State**
-Bills biggest need is the lack of an explosive pass rusher. Maybin is carrying a lot of media hype right now and with Brown and Orakpo off the board, the Bills take a chance on Maybin. Maybin has potential, but is very raw and undersized. He can be used as a situational pass rusher to start and be worked into a starter's role. Larry English is another potential pick, and they could look at an OLB like Cushing as well.

12. Denver Broncos-NT B.J. Raji, Boston College
-Broncos have been bad at run defense for a while, but Raji can fix those worries. He reminds me a lot of Vince Wilfork, who Josh McDaniels got to see first hand in New England. Raji is a great player to begin building that 3-4 defense around.

13. Washington Redskins-DE/OLB Larry English, Northern Illinois
-I think this is a bit of a reach, but English is getting a lot of hype as a mid-late 1st Rounder and has looked good at the Senior Bowl. I believe he is a bit undeveloped but the guy has potential and athletic ability. Not to mention, he could fit one of two needs for the Redskins. Either asked to bulk up a bit and develop more pass rush moves and better technique as an end, or, if Marcus Washington leaves, ask to stand up and learn the Outside Linebacker position. Either way, they should be able to find a good role for English.

14. New Orleans Saints-CB Vontae Davis, Illinois*
-This secondary has been pretty bad for a while outside of Mike McKenzie, and he is getting up in age. Vontae has character concerns but has a lot of potential as an explosive Cornerback.

15. Houston Texans-WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri**
-Kevin Walter is gone after next year, and Andre Johnson will need somebody opposite. The return game has shown flashes, but is inconsistent in Houston. Maclin could help keep that consistency. Peria Jerry is a possibility or a DE, but Maclin is a good choice as of today.

16. San Diego Chargers-ILB Rey Maualuga, USC
-Chargers need help at ILB in their 3-4 and this is the only role I can see Rey having success at the next level. Still highly doubt he'd touch a Pro Bowl, but being able to have a big guy like Jamal Williams in front of him would work out nice for Rey. Chargers could move him around a bit and allow to play a Thumper role would be ideal. No safety is worth this pick, so Rey seems ideal if he is still on the board.

17. New York Jets-QB Mark Sanchez, USC*
-Brett Favre is gone either now or after next year, and they don't have any other starting QB's on the roster. This seems like a situation Sanchez could easily bust in if forced to play, but if he gets a chance to sit, he could develop into a solid starter as he does have solid weapons around him.

18. Chicago Bears-QB Josh Freeman, Kansas State*
-This team has a lot more needs then most realize, but it's hard to fill any of them here except Quarterback. They already stated KO will need to make big impact to get resigned this year, and I just doubt it will happen. I think Bears scouts and Jerry Angelo get wowed by Freeman in pre-draft workouts and let him sit behind KO for his final year.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-DT Peria Jerry, (Ole) Mississippi
-Their run defense has dipped and they lack an explosive UT that the Cover 2 needs. Jerry can help a lot with rushing the Quarterback, but should also be able to help the run defense get back up their.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas)-ILB/OLB James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
-James could fit in very well as the ILB in this cover 2, but could also play the other OLB role opposite Ernie Sims if Jordan Dizon randomly turns his game around. Either way, James should be a big help for this defense and a nice partner for Sims.

21. Philadelphia Eagles-TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
-With the top Offensive Tackles off the board, Eagles have two needs left that can be solved in the 1st, Tight End and Running Back. With the Falcons and Ravens inbetween this pick and the Eagles next, they take Pettigrew and got an excellent in-line blocking Tight End with a dang good pair of mitts as well.

22. Minnesota Vikings-CB D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt*
-Other then Winfield, this Cornerback corps is really bad. Winfield is getting old too, so this is a big must. D.J. is a very explosive young playmaker who, if properly developed, could be a very good Cornerback at the next level.

23. New England Patriots-OLB/ILB Clint Sintim, Virginia
-Patriots Linebacker corps play degressed this season. Sintim has 3-4 experience and could provide a big boost to this Front 7. Sintim was mainly an edge rusher at Virginia, but has shown some flashes that say he could play Inside. Either way, his versatility is a big plus and something New England always loves.

24. Atlanta Falcons-DE Robert Ayers Jr., Tennessee
-Jamaal Anderson likely won't be back on the team next year and they have nobody else to help John Abraham who is getting up in years. Ayers had a coming out party at the Senior Bowl and is at least a 2nd Rounder as of now. With a premium placed on pass rushers and a good amount already off the board, Ayers could find himself in the late 1st to a team that needs him bad enough, such as the Falcons.

25. Miami Dolphins-OLB Brian Cushing, USC
-I'm not a big Brian Cushing fan, but he is versatile and I think Parcells could really end up liking this guy. He moves well in space and will test well, but also works hard and seems to play with good intensity on the field. Dolphins need somebody to help out in the Front 7 and Cushing could be a nice fit.

26. Baltimore Ravens-WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland*
-DH-B is a very explosive Wide Receiver with ideal measurables and a world of potential. Ravens lack a true playmaker on offense and with no Inside Linebacker left worth the 26th pick, Ravens add potentially the best player on the board and a great weapon for Flacco.

27. Indianapolis Colts-DT/DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
-Peria is gone, but I could still see the Colts going at a Cover 2 UT here, and that is a role Tyson Jackson could fit. Jackson isn't an explosive pass rusher but a better athlete then anybody else your going to find at DT. Potentially a Wide Receiver here but, I think Tyson is a solid pick.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina)-RB Chris "Beanie" Wells-Ohio State*
-I think Brian Westbrook has a few years left, so they add a compliment and future replacement. Beanie will help a lot with the short yardage game, something that has been lacking big time in Philly. Eben Britton is another option here.

29. New York Giants-WR Kenny Britt, Rutgers*
-Giants stay in-state and grab a big playmaker in Britt. Britt will able to replace the height, redzone target, and playmaking ability that Plax once brought to this team.

30. Tennessee Titans-WR/RB Percy Harvin, Florida*
-Another playmaker to team with Chris Johnson is needed. Paul Kruger is a very tempting option as well, but I'll give Jacob Ford the benefit of the doubt, for now...

31. Pittsburgh Steelers-C Alex Mack, California
-After the Steelers lose the Super Bowl due to constant pressure on Ben and an overall struggle to move the ball, they finally get a guy who can help out at Center. Mack is a very techincally sound and mauling center who is very intelligent as well. Should be a great help to Big Ben.

32. Arizona Cardinals-RB LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh**
-Getting off a Super Bowl victory, the Cardinals celebrate by adding a Reggie Bush type player to the offense. If they can bring Anquan Boldin back, then this offense would be great to watch. Fitz, Boldin, Breston, Urban, and Pope as receiving targets, with Hightower and McCoy splitting carries in a similar way to Deuce and Reggie Bush two years ago. Could lead to tons of excitement.
 
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We don't need an Offensive Tackle so early. I see us picking up Jenkins or a Safety and maybe Crabtree if Ruskell believes he will make a bigger impact than what we need on defense.

I know Mora wants the team to be based on it's defense and have the offense just manage the game and don't turn the ball over, so picking up what we need will likely come from the defensive side. If we can't afford to get Hill back we'll likely pick up a Linebacker, but we'll probably take a Corner or Safety.
 
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JGleas

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phaZe said:
We don't need an Offensive Tackle so early. I see us picking up Jenkins or a Safety and maybe Crabtree if Ruskell believes he will make a bigger impact than what we need on defense.

I know Mora wants the team to be based on it's defense and have the offense just manage the game and don't turn the ball over, so picking up what we need will likely come from the defensive side. If we can't afford to get Hill back we'll likely pick up a Linebacker, but we'll probably take a Corner or Safety.
Well, their are currently no safeties worth that high of a pick. I do like Patrick Chung, Louis Delmas, and Derek Pegues as late 1st-early 2nd Rounders, but they will need to put on a Bob Sanders-esque show to crack the Top 15, let alone Top 5.

Jenkins is certainly worth the slot and an interesting idea. I read though that the Seahawks are happy with Brian Russell and acutally quite excited to have him return to the defense next year.

Also, remember, Offensive Tackle, like Quarterback and Defensive End, are premium positions and if your lacking one of those the present time or for the very near future, you need to make a move to fix that. Oher's stock seems to be up and down depending on what you read, so the Combine should really sort out this very strong group of Offensive Tackles. Like I said perviously, Oher reminds me a lot of Waler Jones and it would be an ideal situation for both Seattle and Oher.
 
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We aren't lacking any of those. Walter Jones is capable of going a few more years. We have youth at the Defensive End position and Seneca Wallace is very capable of being a great starter in the NFL. You just have to realize the Seahawks play in Southern Alaska. ;)

Plus, this Kyle Williams guy who came in and replaced Jones did fairly well and so did the rest of the replacements for the injured starters, so I highly doubt they feel like it's a need this early in the draft if not this year at all.
 
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OT Jason Smith, Baylor
Is going to be the best OT (the next Walter Jones!) but Oher is the only one that could step right in and play this year starting game 1. I still don't get how anyone can think Wallace can be a great starter. I guess if you like a guy that is supposed to run but won't or likes to overthrow wide open receivers then yes he is great at that.
 
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JGleas

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Yea, I just don't see anything special in Senca Wallace whatsoever which obviously opens up the idea for Stafford and Mark Sanchez (maybe the 'Hawks will consider Josh Freeman if you fans are lucky enough).

Walter Jones is 35 years old and had a knee injury this past year. The guy doesn't have too much left. Look at Jonathan Ogden. He retired before this season and was 34. Plus, no offense, if the team keeps losing like this, he won't want to stay around, ruining his body. You never know when a guy is going to retire (Tarik Glenn at the age of 30) so you have to be prepared if you have a guy considering it. Right now, the Seahawks aren't...
 
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Seattlehawk94

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By "analyst" you mean you post unsolicited mock drafts on sites of teams you aren't a fan of?

Being an "expert" means you do that one thousands of sites instead of just hundreds...Keep plugging along you should hit "expert" by April... :roll:

That's now 3 Draft "Analysts" who've "graced" us with their presence since the season ended....

Sorry but I hate these "experts" and the like....For some reason douchebags at E!spn actually pay one to be wrong almost every season...

Tell me how many "mocks" are even 25% right and I'll shut up....

Not one "expert" has even hit 25% YET in a draft.....So I'll just talk about who I WANT as opposed to you telling me who fits MY TEAM (A TEAM I KNOW BETTER THAN YOURSELF, AND HAVE MORE CONTACT WITH PEOPLE IN POWER IN THE ORGANIZATION) rather than read a bunch of drivel written on the internet..

I rank Mocks right below Fan Fiction and Internet Petitions as things I'd rather castrate myself than read...
 
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JGleas

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Seattlehawk94 said:
By "analyst" you mean you post unsolicited mock drafts on sites of teams you aren't a fan of?

Being an "expert" means you do that one thousands of sites instead of just hundreds...Keep plugging along you should hit "expert" by April... :roll:

That's now 3 Draft "Analysts" who've "graced" us with their presence since the season ended....

Sorry but I hate these "experts" and the like....For some reason douchebags at E!spn actually pay one to be wrong almost every season...

Tell me how many "mocks" are even 25% right and I'll shut up....

Not one "expert" has even hit 25% YET in a draft.....So I'll just talk about who I WANT as opposed to you telling me who fits MY TEAM (A TEAM I KNOW BETTER THAN YOURSELF, AND HAVE MORE CONTACT WITH PEOPLE IN POWER IN THE ORGANIZATION) rather than read a bunch of drivel written on the internet..

I rank Mocks right below Fan Fiction and Internet Petitions as things I'd rather castrate myself than read...
I never tried to peg myself as an Expert of the draft because I am not. I analyze the draft and it's prospects and have done it for a few years now. I've been taught by NFL Scouts along with D.J. Boyer (a former NFL Scout and notable Draft Analyst) along with a few others on how to evaluate prospects. I'm not going to makeself out to be an "expert" or some "guru" because I simply am not. I am man who's been taught how to analyze the Draft and it's prospects and I do my best each year to provide people with information regarding each.

I'm not telling you whatsoever who fits "your team." This is a simple projection of mine. Nothing more, nothing less. Sadly though you are wrong on one part. One of the most accurate Mock's ever was Clark Judge's in 2007 when he correctly picked 13 picks, aka above 40% correct. And, there aren't many that are far off. In fact, my best Mock was in 2006, where I correctly picked the first 6 picks of the draft right and also was right about Antonio Cromartie to the Chargers and Nick Mangold to the Jets, which is 8 picks total and exactly 25%. So, their are those who hit 25%, and a few people hit it every year in fact.

Like I said, I'm not trying to come across as an "expert." I'm not here to tell you "Seahawks take Michael Oher, guarntee. Any other pick would be ridiculous." I also never said I have great inside sources with Seattle or anything. I do have some people I talk to, and I read a lot of information. Like I stated in the original post, I'm very good friends with a member here (a Mod in fact) and was just joining and sharing information because he asked me too. I'm not just trying to get people to go to some site (as I did not post a link nor mention a site I currently work for. I also have no links in my profile as well), just trying to spread information and inform some people.
 
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Seattlehawk94

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Sadly though you are wrong on one part. One of the most accurate Mock's ever was Clark Judge's in 2007 when he correctly picked 13 picks, aka above 40% correct. And, there aren't many that are far off. In fact, my best Mock was in 2006, where I correctly picked the first 6 picks of the draft right and also was right about Antonio Cromartie to the Chargers and Nick Mangold to the Jets, which is 8 picks total and exactly 25%. So, their are those who hit 25%, and a few people hit it every year in fact.

I'm not talking about "Top 10" or "1st Round" I'm talking total draft mocks...No one has hit 25% in a mock over 1 Round.
 
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I love to watch these things, its big time football drama! It made my draft day watching Brady Quinn drop like a helicopter out of fuel! He cried like a bullied schoolgirl, and I laughed and laughed every time they showed him.
 
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JGleas

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Seattlehawk94 said:
Sadly though you are wrong on one part. One of the most accurate Mock's ever was Clark Judge's in 2007 when he correctly picked 13 picks, aka above 40% correct. And, there aren't many that are far off. In fact, my best Mock was in 2006, where I correctly picked the first 6 picks of the draft right and also was right about Antonio Cromartie to the Chargers and Nick Mangold to the Jets, which is 8 picks total and exactly 25%. So, their are those who hit 25%, and a few people hit it every year in fact.

I'm not talking about "Top 10" or "1st Round" I'm talking total draft mocks...No one has hit 25% in a mock over 1 Round.
That's insanly impossible, you do understand that right? One, not too many people even do more then just a 1st Round Mock. Word gets around on who teams are interested in near the top and how most teams view who are 1st Round prospects. Beyond that, most teams boards are much different then the next teams as they make their boards facting in need and value. No contest either grades past the 1st Round. In the end, after the 1st Round, the rest of the Draft is a pure crapshoot for the most part. I've talked to scouts that had Tom Brady's value higher then the 6th Round. Why didn't their team draft him? Well, they had others ranked higher then him and had other positions to fill. A Mock Draft also shouldn't be anywhere near how you judge one's ability to analyze the Draft. A successful Mock Draft comes from being good at networking, having contacts, and having a good understanding of how the prospects rank near the top of the board and what positions teams are looking to address. Unfortunely though, Mocks are the most published and talked about things, when people really should be judged by their positional rankings and scouting reports. I'll have all those done up soon, but I posted this because I got it done and wanted to share it with people.

Once again, I'm sorry that you have the ill feelings towards Mock Drafts and other Analysts just because a few select try to pass themselves off as "experts" and like they know exactly what's going to happen. I hope you come to open your views a little and realize that I and others do Mock Drafts to try and provide fans with information on teams other then their favorite's as well as the prospects. Like I previously stated, not many Mock Drafts go past the 1st Round, and anybody doing a Mock past the 1st Round and expectating to hit more then 5 picks in the other 6 Rounds are fooling themselves and nailing 25% on an entire 7 Rounds is simply imposssible. If those are your expecatations and you really refuse to move from that stance, then alright. But, I really suggest you reconsider and open yourself up a little more because Mock Drafts done by the right people can really give you a lot of information on prospects in the Draft and the other teams.
 

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Do you watch the Seahawks? Better yet, do you watch football? Because, frankly, some of the things you say are simply unintelligible...
 
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Cole said:
Do you watch the Seahawks? Better yet, do you watch football? Because, frankly, some of the things you say are simply unintelligible...
And what exactly are those things? I'd love to know...
 

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lol Things like "The Seahawks are very excited about having Brian Russell return to their defense." First off, that's downright bullshit... Russell is deplorable, and should be removed during passing situations. Second, if that is true, will you kindly provide me with the derivation of that comment?
 
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Cole said:
lol Things like "The Seahawks are very excited about having Brian Russell return to their defense." First off, that's downright bullshit... Russell is deplorable, and should be removed during passing situations. Second, if that is true, will you kindly provide me with the derivation of that comment?
http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Th ... 011009.htm
While other observers in Seattle might have a hard time agreeing with its line of thinking after Brian Russell’s shaky ’08 campaign, we hear the Seahawks’ brain trust still thinks their starting free safety’s savvy and steadiness are assets worth keeping.
Whether it's "bullshit" or not, it was reported by a credible site that receives a lot of good info and Brian Russell is still under contract. I never said "Brian Russell is a God of Safety's" or even that he is good. I was simply going by what I read from a credible source.
 

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Wow... That's just astounding... In what conceivable way can any respectable franchise consider retaining a player with such a blatant disregard for the BALL?! They're right... Their modi operandi leave me bewildered... to say the absolute least.
 
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I think Russell's performance truly was affected by the downplay of Jennings and our second CB. Once Wilson took over it appeared the Russell didn't give up as many big plays. I think psycological he was worrying about Jennings guy along with his assignments. I think Russell will get right back on track to the form he was when we signed him. I wouldn't worry too much about Brian.
 
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Seattlehawk94

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Russell sucks......He's another one of "The Little Ruskells" and anyone who thinks dude has some sort of value was watching a different team than I was...He hits like a girl and WRs aren't afraid to go over the middle with that douche back there at Safety.

Oh...But as Ruskell would claim "he's undersized but fast" like all of Ruskell's midgets he's "small but fast"..Yep..Can't play the ball, can't tackle, but he'd be great if the NFL ever competes in relays in the "Battle of the Network Stars".
 
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